Welcome to the ICTF Country Risk Ratings and News Analysis site, powered with content from the Economist Intelligence Unit.
What's happened?
In mid-April the president, Luis Abinader of the centrist Partido Revolucionario Moderno (PRM), announced a set of 15 measures to curtail illegal migration, targeting migrants from Haiti. This latest action comes as a security crisis in neighbouring Haiti persists and its outlook remains dire. Undocumented migration will
What's happened?
In response to the recent tariff announcements by the US, which will impose a 10% tariff on exports from the Turks and Caicos Islands (TCI) and increase the costs of some imports from the US, the TCI government has announced fiscal measures to cushion the local economic
Curaçao’s lucrative online gambling industry is coming under increasing scrutiny owing to concerns that it facilitates money laundering and other criminal activity, particularly given that much of it involves cryptocurrency. Curaçao’s opposition has also accused the government of mishandling gambling licences ahead of legislation passed in late 2024. We expect
What's happened?
The government has announced a programme of piecemeal administrative simplification. A directorate general dedicated to administrative simplification will also be created to drive the implementation of these measures and seek further efficiency gains. Although the changes will have only a marginal impact, they were welcomed by employers'
What's happened?
On February 5th Nikolas Ioannides, Cyprus's migration minister, announced that hundreds of Syrian refugees had withdrawn asylum applications in the weeks since the fall of the Assad regime in Syria. He also announced on the same day that Cyprus had achieved a record 69% drop in asylum
What’s happened?
Vietnam announced several measures to boost its domestic economy and to combat looming trade shocks in April. These included accelerating bond sales, unveiling a roadmap for a major transportation project, abolishing delayed power projects and, most importantly, advancing its provincial merger plan, which was approved by the
What's happened?
On April 17th small island states in the Caribbean secured an exemption to a US Trade Representative (USTR) ruling that recommended the imposition of steep port fees on Chinese-made cargo ships that seek to dock in the US. The exemption of vessels from Caribbean ports from the
What's happened?
On April 24th Lebanon's parliament approved a new draft law on banking secrecy that had gained cabinet approval the previous week. The new law will extend the access of specific regulators to records from the previous ten years, beyond the 2022 limit on retroactivity that was set
What's happened?
Pre-election estimates from the Ministry of Finance and Development show that the operating fiscal account (which excludes capital expenditure) will be in deficit of CI$26.2m (US$31.3m, 0.1% of GDP) this year, compared with an originally planned surplus of CI$54.7m. Rectifying this fiscal slippage will be a pressing
What's happened?
On April 22nd an Ivorian court removed Tidjane Thiam, the leader of an opposition party, Parti démocratique de Côte d'Ivoire-Rassemblement démocratique africain (PDCI), from the electoral register, as he was ruled to be ineligible. Mr Thiam's removal from the electoral roll prohibits him from standing in the
What's happened?
In mid-April the president, Luis Abinader of the centrist Partido Revolucionario Moderno (PRM), announced a set of 15 measures to curtail illegal migration, targeting migrants from Haiti. This latest action comes as a security crisis in neighbouring Haiti persists and its outlook remains dire. Undocumented migration will
What's happened?
In response to the recent tariff announcements by the US, which will impose a 10% tariff on exports from the Turks and Caicos Islands (TCI) and increase the costs of some imports from the US, the TCI government has announced fiscal measures to cushion the local economic
Curaçao’s lucrative online gambling industry is coming under increasing scrutiny owing to concerns that it facilitates money laundering and other criminal activity, particularly given that much of it involves cryptocurrency. Curaçao’s opposition has also accused the government of mishandling gambling licences ahead of legislation passed in late 2024. We expect
What's happened?
The government has announced a programme of piecemeal administrative simplification. A directorate general dedicated to administrative simplification will also be created to drive the implementation of these measures and seek further efficiency gains. Although the changes will have only a marginal impact, they were welcomed by employers'
What's happened?
On February 5th Nikolas Ioannides, Cyprus's migration minister, announced that hundreds of Syrian refugees had withdrawn asylum applications in the weeks since the fall of the Assad regime in Syria. He also announced on the same day that Cyprus had achieved a record 69% drop in asylum
What’s happened?
Vietnam announced several measures to boost its domestic economy and to combat looming trade shocks in April. These included accelerating bond sales, unveiling a roadmap for a major transportation project, abolishing delayed power projects and, most importantly, advancing its provincial merger plan, which was approved by the
What's happened?
On April 17th small island states in the Caribbean secured an exemption to a US Trade Representative (USTR) ruling that recommended the imposition of steep port fees on Chinese-made cargo ships that seek to dock in the US. The exemption of vessels from Caribbean ports from the
What's happened?
On April 24th Lebanon's parliament approved a new draft law on banking secrecy that had gained cabinet approval the previous week. The new law will extend the access of specific regulators to records from the previous ten years, beyond the 2022 limit on retroactivity that was set
What's happened?
Pre-election estimates from the Ministry of Finance and Development show that the operating fiscal account (which excludes capital expenditure) will be in deficit of CI$26.2m (US$31.3m, 0.1% of GDP) this year, compared with an originally planned surplus of CI$54.7m. Rectifying this fiscal slippage will be a pressing
What's happened?
On April 22nd an Ivorian court removed Tidjane Thiam, the leader of an opposition party, Parti démocratique de Côte d'Ivoire-Rassemblement démocratique africain (PDCI), from the electoral register, as he was ruled to be ineligible. Mr Thiam's removal from the electoral roll prohibits him from standing in the
Key trends Key changes since March 20th While the US president, Donald Trump, has paused implementation of so-called reciprocal tariffs, he has proceeded with other levies, notably on China, which raise the weighted average tariff rate (WATR) on US imports to historically high levels. These tariffs exceed EIU’s previous expectations
Cyber-attack successfully damages critical infrastructure, temporarily crippling a major economy Security risk scenario Risk intensity, probability and impact for Security risk scenario Risk intensity (probability x impact) Probability: Very low (1) – Very high (5) Impact: (Very low (1) – Very high (5) 6 Moderate Low Context Given the substantially
Key trends Geopolitical risk will continue to weigh on the outlook. EIU’s baseline forecasts continue to rule out a war emerging in the Middle East or Asia comparable to that of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but even the threat of geopolitical conflict will lead to economic reconfiguration, policy divergence and
Key trends Key changes since March 20th While the US president, Donald Trump, has paused implementation of so-called reciprocal tariffs, he has proceeded with other levies, notably on China, which raise the weighted average tariff rate (WATR) on US imports to historically high levels. These tariffs exceed EIU’s previous expectations
Cyber-attack successfully damages critical infrastructure, temporarily crippling a major economy Security risk scenario Risk intensity, probability and impact for Security risk scenario Risk intensity (probability x impact) Probability: Very low (1) – Very high (5) Impact: (Very low (1) – Very high (5) 6 Moderate Low Context Given the substantially
Key trends Geopolitical risk will continue to weigh on the outlook. EIU’s baseline forecasts continue to rule out a war emerging in the Middle East or Asia comparable to that of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but even the threat of geopolitical conflict will lead to economic reconfiguration, policy divergence and
Next-generation technologies Digital economy We estimate that e-commerce sales totalled €44.7bn in 2024, representing 15.1% of total retail sales. They will rise to more than €60bn in 2029, or 17.4% of total retail sales. According to Worldpay’s Global Payments Report 2025, digital wallets were the most popular method of payment
Financial regulation Policy trends The Bank of Israel (BOI, the central bank) is independent and has been vigilant in implementing and tightening regulation in both the commercial and the retail banking sectors via its Supervisor of Banks department. The regulator of non-bank financial firms is the Capital Market, Insurance and
Five-year forecast Brazil is Latin America's largest automotive market and second-largest vehicle manufacturer. New-car sales in Brazil have been recovering well since 2022 and will continue to rise in EIU's 2025-29 forecast period. Although we expect stable economic growth to support new-car sales, this segment will not return to pre-pandemic
Nuclear Nuclear power forecast There are currently no plans to build any nuclear reactors. Coal Demand Oman does not consume any coal. Plans for a 1,200-MW clean coal-fired independent power project (IPP) to serve the new economic city at Duqm were shelved indefinitely in 2020 and have almost no prospect
Five-year forecast Pakistan is the world's fifth-most populous nation with about 251m people, based on 2024 data. EIU expects that population growth will remain rapid, averaging 1.6% over the forecast period (2025-29), keeping the demographics skewed towards young people. Although the total population is forecast to reach 272m by end-2029,
Five-year forecast Norway has a relatively small population of about 5.6m people. The country is wealthy, in part because it is a major oil exporter. Personal incomes are elevated and income differentials low, resulting in high rates of car ownership. The Norwegian passenger car market is therefore highly saturated, with
Five-year forecast With a population of nearly 233m and an estimated car ownership rate of just 27 vehicles per 1,000 people in 2024, Nigeria has a potentially large but currently underserved vehicle market. The country is rich in natural resources (notably oil) and its population growth will average 2% a
Five-year forecast Venezuela's healthcare system had been in a state of near-collapse amid an economic and social crisis in the politically repressed state for years before the covid-19 pandemic hit the country. Public health infrastructure has been debilitated as a result of a dire investment crunch as the country has
Energy policy Latest developments The government implemented amendments to the Petroleum Policy and introduced a Tight Gas Policy in 2024. These policy revisions aim to offer improved incentives and a more favourable regulatory framework to attract both local and international firms to invest in oil and gas exploration and production
Nuclear The government’s long-standing goal to develop a civilian nuclear power capability has gained momentum this decade; Chinese, French, Russian and South Korean firms had been due to submit bids by a new deadline of July 2024 to supply technology for the proposed first, two-reactor, 2,800-MW plant at Khor Duwaiheen,
Next-generation technologies Digital economy We estimate that e-commerce sales totalled €44.7bn in 2024, representing 15.1% of total retail sales. They will rise to more than €60bn in 2029, or 17.4% of total retail sales. According to Worldpay’s Global Payments Report 2025, digital wallets were the most popular method of payment
Financial regulation Policy trends The Bank of Israel (BOI, the central bank) is independent and has been vigilant in implementing and tightening regulation in both the commercial and the retail banking sectors via its Supervisor of Banks department. The regulator of non-bank financial firms is the Capital Market, Insurance and
Five-year forecast Brazil is Latin America's largest automotive market and second-largest vehicle manufacturer. New-car sales in Brazil have been recovering well since 2022 and will continue to rise in EIU's 2025-29 forecast period. Although we expect stable economic growth to support new-car sales, this segment will not return to pre-pandemic
Nuclear Nuclear power forecast There are currently no plans to build any nuclear reactors. Coal Demand Oman does not consume any coal. Plans for a 1,200-MW clean coal-fired independent power project (IPP) to serve the new economic city at Duqm were shelved indefinitely in 2020 and have almost no prospect
Five-year forecast Pakistan is the world's fifth-most populous nation with about 251m people, based on 2024 data. EIU expects that population growth will remain rapid, averaging 1.6% over the forecast period (2025-29), keeping the demographics skewed towards young people. Although the total population is forecast to reach 272m by end-2029,
Five-year forecast Norway has a relatively small population of about 5.6m people. The country is wealthy, in part because it is a major oil exporter. Personal incomes are elevated and income differentials low, resulting in high rates of car ownership. The Norwegian passenger car market is therefore highly saturated, with
Five-year forecast With a population of nearly 233m and an estimated car ownership rate of just 27 vehicles per 1,000 people in 2024, Nigeria has a potentially large but currently underserved vehicle market. The country is rich in natural resources (notably oil) and its population growth will average 2% a
Five-year forecast Venezuela's healthcare system had been in a state of near-collapse amid an economic and social crisis in the politically repressed state for years before the covid-19 pandemic hit the country. Public health infrastructure has been debilitated as a result of a dire investment crunch as the country has
Energy policy Latest developments The government implemented amendments to the Petroleum Policy and introduced a Tight Gas Policy in 2024. These policy revisions aim to offer improved incentives and a more favourable regulatory framework to attract both local and international firms to invest in oil and gas exploration and production
Nuclear The government’s long-standing goal to develop a civilian nuclear power capability has gained momentum this decade; Chinese, French, Russian and South Korean firms had been due to submit bids by a new deadline of July 2024 to supply technology for the proposed first, two-reactor, 2,800-MW plant at Khor Duwaiheen,
