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What's happened?
Russia and Ukraine have agreed to a partial ceasefire, after both sides held separate talks with the US president, Donald Trump. The US had been pressing for a complete 30-day ceasefire across land, air and sea, supported by Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyi. However Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin,
What's happened?
In mid-March the state-level Court of Bosnia and Hercegovina (BiH) issued arrest warrants for Milorad Dodik, the president of Republika Srpska (RS)—BiH's Bosnian Serb entity—along with the RS premier, Radovan Viskovic, and the president of the RS National Assembly, Nenad Stevandic. The warrants were issued after the
What's happened?
Petroperú, Peru’s state-owned oil and gas company, reported a net loss of US$805m as at end-2024. The company has been facing major financial struggles since 2022, receiving governmental loans and additional support measures in 2022 and 2024 under the former president, Pedro Castillo (2021-2022), and the current
What's happened?
In mid-March the Export-Import Bank of the United States (EXIM Bank) approved a US$4.7bn loan for the Area 1 liquefied natural gas (LNG) project in Mozambique led by TotalEnergies (a French energy firm). The approval is consistent with a more transactional approach to foreign policy under the
What's happened?
The Dangote oil refinery, which has a nameplate capacity of 650,000 barrels/day, has announced that it will cease the supply of petrol in local currency as a result of a halted supply of crude oil feedstock from the state oil company, Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL),
What's happened?
In mid-March Indonesia’s Ministry of Finance reported a budget deficit of Rp31trn (US$1.9bn), equivalent to 0.1% of GDP for the first two months of 2025; this reverses last year’s surplus of 0.1% of GDP over the same period. Total government revenue fell by 20.8% from a year
What's happened?
On March 13th Bolivia’s president, Luis Arce of the left-wing Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS), announced a series of measures aiming to tackle the country’s latest bout of fuel shortages, which has worsened owing to a lack of hard currency for fuel imports. Among the measures announced, the
What's happened?
On March 19th, the Turkish police arrested Ekrem Imamoglu, the popular mayor of Istanbul and a significant challenger to Recep Tayyip Erdogan's hopes for another presidential term. The arrest is part of an investigation into alleged corruption and terrorism links. Prosecutors reportedly also issued warrants for 99
What's happened?
On March 13th the Angolan authorities denied entry to opposition leaders from several African countries, including Ian Seretse Khama, Botswana's former president, and Venâncio Mondlane, who contested Mozambique's presidential election in 2024 and lost to the ruling party, Frelimo. The leaders were due to attend a two-day
What’s happened?
The likelihood of a normalisation deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia have declined considerably following remarks from the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, and the US president, Donald Trump, about transforming the devastated Gaza region into a Middle Eastern rivieria. The remarks provoked a strong reaction from
What's happened?
Russia and Ukraine have agreed to a partial ceasefire, after both sides held separate talks with the US president, Donald Trump. The US had been pressing for a complete 30-day ceasefire across land, air and sea, supported by Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyi. However Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin,
What's happened?
In mid-March the state-level Court of Bosnia and Hercegovina (BiH) issued arrest warrants for Milorad Dodik, the president of Republika Srpska (RS)—BiH's Bosnian Serb entity—along with the RS premier, Radovan Viskovic, and the president of the RS National Assembly, Nenad Stevandic. The warrants were issued after the
What's happened?
Petroperú, Peru’s state-owned oil and gas company, reported a net loss of US$805m as at end-2024. The company has been facing major financial struggles since 2022, receiving governmental loans and additional support measures in 2022 and 2024 under the former president, Pedro Castillo (2021-2022), and the current
What's happened?
In mid-March the Export-Import Bank of the United States (EXIM Bank) approved a US$4.7bn loan for the Area 1 liquefied natural gas (LNG) project in Mozambique led by TotalEnergies (a French energy firm). The approval is consistent with a more transactional approach to foreign policy under the
What's happened?
The Dangote oil refinery, which has a nameplate capacity of 650,000 barrels/day, has announced that it will cease the supply of petrol in local currency as a result of a halted supply of crude oil feedstock from the state oil company, Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL),
What's happened?
In mid-March Indonesia’s Ministry of Finance reported a budget deficit of Rp31trn (US$1.9bn), equivalent to 0.1% of GDP for the first two months of 2025; this reverses last year’s surplus of 0.1% of GDP over the same period. Total government revenue fell by 20.8% from a year
What's happened?
On March 13th Bolivia’s president, Luis Arce of the left-wing Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS), announced a series of measures aiming to tackle the country’s latest bout of fuel shortages, which has worsened owing to a lack of hard currency for fuel imports. Among the measures announced, the
What's happened?
On March 19th, the Turkish police arrested Ekrem Imamoglu, the popular mayor of Istanbul and a significant challenger to Recep Tayyip Erdogan's hopes for another presidential term. The arrest is part of an investigation into alleged corruption and terrorism links. Prosecutors reportedly also issued warrants for 99
What's happened?
On March 13th the Angolan authorities denied entry to opposition leaders from several African countries, including Ian Seretse Khama, Botswana's former president, and Venâncio Mondlane, who contested Mozambique's presidential election in 2024 and lost to the ruling party, Frelimo. The leaders were due to attend a two-day
What’s happened?
The likelihood of a normalisation deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia have declined considerably following remarks from the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, and the US president, Donald Trump, about transforming the devastated Gaza region into a Middle Eastern rivieria. The remarks provoked a strong reaction from
Key trends Geopolitical risk will continue to weigh on the outlook. EIU’s baseline forecasts continue to rule out a war emerging in the Middle East or Asia comparable to that of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but even the threat of geopolitical conflict will lead to economic reconfiguration, policy divergence and
Key trends Geopolitical risk will continue to weigh on the outlook. EIU’s baseline forecasts continue to rule out a war emerging in the Middle East or Asia comparable to that of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but even the threat of geopolitical conflict will lead to economic reconfiguration, policy divergence and
Key trends Geopolitical risk will continue to weigh on the outlook. EIU’s baseline forecasts continue to rule out a war emerging in the Middle East or Asia comparable to that of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but we expect that even the threat of geopolitical conflict will lead to economic fragmentation,
Key trends Geopolitical risk will continue to weigh on the outlook. EIU’s baseline forecasts continue to rule out a war emerging in the Middle East or Asia comparable to that of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but even the threat of geopolitical conflict will lead to economic reconfiguration, policy divergence and
Key trends Geopolitical risk will continue to weigh on the outlook. EIU’s baseline forecasts continue to rule out a war emerging in the Middle East or Asia comparable to that of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but even the threat of geopolitical conflict will lead to economic reconfiguration, policy divergence and
Key trends Geopolitical risk will continue to weigh on the outlook. EIU’s baseline forecasts continue to rule out a war emerging in the Middle East or Asia comparable to that of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but we expect that even the threat of geopolitical conflict will lead to economic fragmentation,
Consumer goods and retail report: Overview Saudi Arabia is the largest economy in the Middle East, driven by its oil sector which makes up some 40% of GDP. It is the most populous country in the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC), a six-nation regional economic bloc, with a youthful population, which
Healthcare report: Healthcare spending Overview EIU forecasts that Hong Kong’s real GDP will increase by 2.4% in 2025-a slight moderation from 2.5% real growth in 2024. Private consumption will slow as the post-pandemic rebound settles, but this will be offset by acceleration in export growth alongside increasing demands for Chinese
Healthcare report: Healthcare spending Overview EIU estimates that Egypt’s healthcare expenditure was equivalent to 4.8% of its GDP in 2024, far below the OECD average. We expect healthcare spending to increase to about 5.2% of GDP on average in our 2025-29 forecast period as inflation eases. The continued rollout of
Automotive report: Overview The automotive sector is an integral part of UK manufacturing, comprising 11% of goods exports and directly employing about 190,000 people. However, vehicle production has fallen sharply since 2016. The outlook for the sector is challenging amid intensifying global competition (especially from China) and trade protectionism, the
Automotive report: Overview The US is the world’s second-largest vehicle producer and market after China. Its automotive industry is closely integrated with those of Mexico and Canada. The North American automotive sector as a whole is currently in a state of considerable flux, caused by the rapid but inconsistent shift
Overview Financial firms in Turkey face difficult conditions in the short term, following the re-election of Recep Tayyip Erdogan as president in May 2023 in a tightly contested run-off. In the same month the alliance led by his Justice and Development Party (AKP) won a majority in parliament. Mr Erdogan
Consumer goods and retail report: Overview Indonesia is a major market in South-east Asia. Its large population and rising income levels make it appealing for retail investors. After suffering a cost-of-living crisis during the pandemic, positive structural factors like rising disposable income levels, urbanisation and consumer resilience point to a
Automotive report: Overview Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022, its automotive industry has been altered. Chinese vehicles, along with domestic brands produced by AvtoVAZ (the flagship Russian manufacturer, which was owned by France’s Renault before the start of the war), now dominate the market. Although government
Automotive report: Overview Mexico is a regional production hub for the automotive industry, which generates about 4% of the country’s GDP. Vehicle exports have rebounded strongly after a sharp decline in 2020, growing for four consecutive years on the back of recovering US demand and easing supply-chain disruptions, with annual
Overview India’s financial services sector has recovered well in recent years from a domestic bad-loans crisis and the global turmoil caused by covid-19. Its banks recorded three consecutive years of record profits in 2021-23, and these profits are likely to rise further, as India looks set to be the fastest-growing
Consumer goods and retail report: Overview Saudi Arabia is the largest economy in the Middle East, driven by its oil sector which makes up some 40% of GDP. It is the most populous country in the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC), a six-nation regional economic bloc, with a youthful population, which
Healthcare report: Healthcare spending Overview EIU forecasts that Hong Kong’s real GDP will increase by 2.4% in 2025-a slight moderation from 2.5% real growth in 2024. Private consumption will slow as the post-pandemic rebound settles, but this will be offset by acceleration in export growth alongside increasing demands for Chinese
Healthcare report: Healthcare spending Overview EIU estimates that Egypt’s healthcare expenditure was equivalent to 4.8% of its GDP in 2024, far below the OECD average. We expect healthcare spending to increase to about 5.2% of GDP on average in our 2025-29 forecast period as inflation eases. The continued rollout of
Automotive report: Overview The automotive sector is an integral part of UK manufacturing, comprising 11% of goods exports and directly employing about 190,000 people. However, vehicle production has fallen sharply since 2016. The outlook for the sector is challenging amid intensifying global competition (especially from China) and trade protectionism, the
Automotive report: Overview The US is the world’s second-largest vehicle producer and market after China. Its automotive industry is closely integrated with those of Mexico and Canada. The North American automotive sector as a whole is currently in a state of considerable flux, caused by the rapid but inconsistent shift
Overview Financial firms in Turkey face difficult conditions in the short term, following the re-election of Recep Tayyip Erdogan as president in May 2023 in a tightly contested run-off. In the same month the alliance led by his Justice and Development Party (AKP) won a majority in parliament. Mr Erdogan
Consumer goods and retail report: Overview Indonesia is a major market in South-east Asia. Its large population and rising income levels make it appealing for retail investors. After suffering a cost-of-living crisis during the pandemic, positive structural factors like rising disposable income levels, urbanisation and consumer resilience point to a
Automotive report: Overview Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022, its automotive industry has been altered. Chinese vehicles, along with domestic brands produced by AvtoVAZ (the flagship Russian manufacturer, which was owned by France’s Renault before the start of the war), now dominate the market. Although government
Automotive report: Overview Mexico is a regional production hub for the automotive industry, which generates about 4% of the country’s GDP. Vehicle exports have rebounded strongly after a sharp decline in 2020, growing for four consecutive years on the back of recovering US demand and easing supply-chain disruptions, with annual
Overview India’s financial services sector has recovered well in recent years from a domestic bad-loans crisis and the global turmoil caused by covid-19. Its banks recorded three consecutive years of record profits in 2021-23, and these profits are likely to rise further, as India looks set to be the fastest-growing
