Welcome to the ICTF Country Risk Ratings and News Analysis site, powered with content from the Economist Intelligence Unit.
What's happened?
On May 16th Succès Masra, the president of Les transformateurs, an opposition party, was arrested by security forces following allegations of "inciting the public to hatred and hostility". In late April Mr Masra publicly criticised Chad's president, Mahamat Idriss Déby, and called for the democratic transition to
What's happened?
On August 8th, at the 11th Mozambique Mining and Energy Conference (MMEC), the government of Mozambique signed Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs) with the governments of Zambia and Zimbabwe. The implementation of measures under these MoUs aims to boost Mozambique’s transshipment of fuel through new storage infrastructure and
What's happened?
Widespread protests and strikes have escalated across Panama in recent weeks. The teachers' union launched the strikes initially in late April over the approval of the pension reform; this has since broadened to include healthcare professionals, university students, farm workers and members of the Sindicato Único de
What's happened?
On April 12th the Cypriot president, Nikos Christodoulides, said that Cyprus would probably join the Schengen area in 2026. Joining the Schengen area will abolish border checks between Cyprus and 29 other mainly EU countries, with air and sea travel no longer requiring passport checks. We expect
What's happened?
The Canadian miner, Lundin Mining, announced that its subsidiary, Vicuña Corporation, a joint venture it has with the Australian mining firm, BHP, has discovered the largest copper reserves in 30 years in its Filo del Sol project that is located in the San Juan province. Filo del
What's happened?
In April Kyrgyz law enforcement officers arrested four people on suspicion of recruiting mercenaries to fight for Russia in Ukraine. This illustrates how the Central Asian countries are walking a geopolitical tightrope. They will struggle to maintain crucial political, economic and security alliances with Russia while safeguarding
What's happened?
On May 12th the ambassador of the EU delegation to Uganda, Jan Sadek, expressed concern about human rights abuses, extrajudicial actions by the security forces and the arbitrary arrest of members of the National Union Platform (NUP), an opposition party. Mr Sadek commented on the arraignment of
What's happened?
On May 8th Iran and Niger signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to strengthen security co-operation to help Niger to tackle terrorism, transnational organised crime and trafficking of all kinds, as well as to strengthen border control and the management of illegal immigration. The move signals a
What's happened?
On May 13th Bolivia’s president, Luis Arce, of the left-wing Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) declined the party’s candidacy and announced that he would not seek re-election at the August 17th general election. Although we had expected Mr Arce to secure a second term, Bolivia’s mounting economic challenges
What's happened?
In late April Carlos Cuerpo, Spain’s trade and economy minister, met the US Treasury secretary and current lead trade official, Scott Bessent, in Washington DC. Mr Besset urged Spain to boost its defence spending in line with NATO commitments. His message echoed that of the US president,
What's happened?
On May 16th Succès Masra, the president of Les transformateurs, an opposition party, was arrested by security forces following allegations of "inciting the public to hatred and hostility". In late April Mr Masra publicly criticised Chad's president, Mahamat Idriss Déby, and called for the democratic transition to
What's happened?
On August 8th, at the 11th Mozambique Mining and Energy Conference (MMEC), the government of Mozambique signed Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs) with the governments of Zambia and Zimbabwe. The implementation of measures under these MoUs aims to boost Mozambique’s transshipment of fuel through new storage infrastructure and
What's happened?
Widespread protests and strikes have escalated across Panama in recent weeks. The teachers' union launched the strikes initially in late April over the approval of the pension reform; this has since broadened to include healthcare professionals, university students, farm workers and members of the Sindicato Único de
What's happened?
On April 12th the Cypriot president, Nikos Christodoulides, said that Cyprus would probably join the Schengen area in 2026. Joining the Schengen area will abolish border checks between Cyprus and 29 other mainly EU countries, with air and sea travel no longer requiring passport checks. We expect
What's happened?
The Canadian miner, Lundin Mining, announced that its subsidiary, Vicuña Corporation, a joint venture it has with the Australian mining firm, BHP, has discovered the largest copper reserves in 30 years in its Filo del Sol project that is located in the San Juan province. Filo del
What's happened?
In April Kyrgyz law enforcement officers arrested four people on suspicion of recruiting mercenaries to fight for Russia in Ukraine. This illustrates how the Central Asian countries are walking a geopolitical tightrope. They will struggle to maintain crucial political, economic and security alliances with Russia while safeguarding
What's happened?
On May 12th the ambassador of the EU delegation to Uganda, Jan Sadek, expressed concern about human rights abuses, extrajudicial actions by the security forces and the arbitrary arrest of members of the National Union Platform (NUP), an opposition party. Mr Sadek commented on the arraignment of
What's happened?
On May 8th Iran and Niger signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to strengthen security co-operation to help Niger to tackle terrorism, transnational organised crime and trafficking of all kinds, as well as to strengthen border control and the management of illegal immigration. The move signals a
What's happened?
On May 13th Bolivia’s president, Luis Arce, of the left-wing Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) declined the party’s candidacy and announced that he would not seek re-election at the August 17th general election. Although we had expected Mr Arce to secure a second term, Bolivia’s mounting economic challenges
What's happened?
In late April Carlos Cuerpo, Spain’s trade and economy minister, met the US Treasury secretary and current lead trade official, Scott Bessent, in Washington DC. Mr Besset urged Spain to boost its defence spending in line with NATO commitments. His message echoed that of the US president,
Key trends Key changes since March 20th While the US president, Donald Trump, has paused implementation of so-called reciprocal tariffs, he has proceeded with other levies, notably on China, which raise the weighted average tariff rate (WATR) on US imports to historically high levels. These tariffs exceed EIU’s previous expectations
Cyber-attack successfully damages critical infrastructure, temporarily crippling a major economy Security risk scenario Risk intensity, probability and impact for Security risk scenario Risk intensity (probability x impact) Probability: Very low (1) – Very high (5) Impact: (Very low (1) – Very high (5) 6 Moderate Low Context Given the substantially
Key trends Geopolitical risk will continue to weigh on the outlook. EIU’s baseline forecasts continue to rule out a war emerging in the Middle East or Asia comparable to that of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but even the threat of geopolitical conflict will lead to economic reconfiguration, policy divergence and
Key trends Key changes since March 20th While the US president, Donald Trump, has paused implementation of so-called reciprocal tariffs, he has proceeded with other levies, notably on China, which raise the weighted average tariff rate (WATR) on US imports to historically high levels. These tariffs exceed EIU’s previous expectations
Cyber-attack successfully damages critical infrastructure, temporarily crippling a major economy Security risk scenario Risk intensity, probability and impact for Security risk scenario Risk intensity (probability x impact) Probability: Very low (1) – Very high (5) Impact: (Very low (1) – Very high (5) 6 Moderate Low Context Given the substantially
Key trends Geopolitical risk will continue to weigh on the outlook. EIU’s baseline forecasts continue to rule out a war emerging in the Middle East or Asia comparable to that of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but even the threat of geopolitical conflict will lead to economic reconfiguration, policy divergence and
Energy policy Latest developments In February 2025 the government finalised the 11th edition of the Basic Plan for Long-term Electricity Supply and Demand—a 15-year plan that is updated every two years. The plan retains its previous iteration's aims of curbing coal-fired power production and generating more electricity via renewables and
Nuclear Concerns about seismic sensitivity have deterred Greece from using nuclear power, rendering any potential nuclear development infeasible. Energy policy Latest developments In April 2025, the The European Commission approved, under EU state aid rules, a €300m Greek scheme to support the production of sustainable biofuels and renewable liquid transport
Energy policy Latest developments In January 2025 the government approved Switzerland’s new greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions targets. By 2035 Switzerland is to reduce GHG emissions by at least 65% compared with 1990 levels, primarily through domestic measures. GHG emissions must fall by 59% on average between 2031 and 2035. Switzerland
Financial regulation Policy trends Self-regulation still plays an important role in Switzerland, but supervision has increased in recent years, as the need has been recognised for tighter controls in today's complex financial markets. The main regulatory body is the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA), which operates independently of the
Energy policy Latest developments In April 2025 the US president, Donald Trump, signed a number of executive orders designed to revive the US coal industry. He overturned the scheduled retirement of some coal-fired power facilities, and said that his administration would expedite leases for coal mining on federal lands. He
Coal Coal demand Domestic demand for coal is meagre, and will remain so over the forecast period. Coal supply Azerbaijan has no significant coal deposits and produces no coal. This is not expected to change. Nuclear Nuclear power forecast There are currently no nuclear reactors or uranium mines in Azerbaijan.
Five-year forecast The US is the world's second-largest vehicle producer and market after China. Its automotive industry has for decades been closely integrated with those of Mexico and Canada. However, the entire North American automotive sector has been thrown into turmoil since the US president, Donald Trump, imposed a 25%
Energy policy Latest developments Upcoming presidential elections in May 2025 will see the candidate from prime minister Donald Tusk’s centrist Civic Coalition (KO), Rafal Trzaskowski, mayor of Warsaw and currently leading the polls, run against Conservative Karol Nawrocki and far-right Eurosceptic candidate, Slawomir Mentzen. Mr Mentzen is gathering momentum in
Energy policy Latest developments In February 2025 the government finalised the 11th edition of the Basic Plan for Long-term Electricity Supply and Demand—a 15-year plan that is updated every two years. The plan retains its previous iteration's aims of curbing coal-fired power production and generating more electricity via renewables and
Nuclear Concerns about seismic sensitivity have deterred Greece from using nuclear power, rendering any potential nuclear development infeasible. Energy policy Latest developments In April 2025, the The European Commission approved, under EU state aid rules, a €300m Greek scheme to support the production of sustainable biofuels and renewable liquid transport
Energy policy Latest developments In January 2025 the government approved Switzerland’s new greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions targets. By 2035 Switzerland is to reduce GHG emissions by at least 65% compared with 1990 levels, primarily through domestic measures. GHG emissions must fall by 59% on average between 2031 and 2035. Switzerland
Financial regulation Policy trends Self-regulation still plays an important role in Switzerland, but supervision has increased in recent years, as the need has been recognised for tighter controls in today's complex financial markets. The main regulatory body is the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA), which operates independently of the
Energy policy Latest developments In April 2025 the US president, Donald Trump, signed a number of executive orders designed to revive the US coal industry. He overturned the scheduled retirement of some coal-fired power facilities, and said that his administration would expedite leases for coal mining on federal lands. He
Coal Coal demand Domestic demand for coal is meagre, and will remain so over the forecast period. Coal supply Azerbaijan has no significant coal deposits and produces no coal. This is not expected to change. Nuclear Nuclear power forecast There are currently no nuclear reactors or uranium mines in Azerbaijan.
Five-year forecast The US is the world's second-largest vehicle producer and market after China. Its automotive industry has for decades been closely integrated with those of Mexico and Canada. However, the entire North American automotive sector has been thrown into turmoil since the US president, Donald Trump, imposed a 25%
Energy policy Latest developments Upcoming presidential elections in May 2025 will see the candidate from prime minister Donald Tusk’s centrist Civic Coalition (KO), Rafal Trzaskowski, mayor of Warsaw and currently leading the polls, run against Conservative Karol Nawrocki and far-right Eurosceptic candidate, Slawomir Mentzen. Mr Mentzen is gathering momentum in
