Welcome to the ICTF Country Risk Ratings and News Analysis site, powered with content from the Economist Intelligence Unit.
What's happened?
On June 2nd Ukraine's Ministry of Finance missed a debt payment, totalling US$665m, on its GDP-linked warrants. This places the country in default. The outcome was made much more likely given the moratorium adopted by the government last year on respective payments and the recent failure of
What's happened?
Moldova is set to complete a critical electricity interconnection with Romania by the end of 2025—more than six months ahead of schedule. The project, backed by the EU, will allow Moldova to fully synchronise its grid with the EU's, severing its dependence on electricity generated in the
What's happened?
On June 10th the Cameroonian police ended their two-day blockade of the residence of Maurice Kamto, the leader of an opposition party, Mouvement pour la renaissance du Cameroun (MRC), allowing him to leave. After returning from France, where he held a political rally for the Cameroonian diaspora
What's happened?
On June 11th Hamas militants attacked a bus near the south-central city of Khan Yunis carrying two dozen local Palestinian workers of the Gaza Humanitarian Fund (GHF), killing at least eight. The attack against GHF—an aid initiative backed by the US and Israel to bypass Hamas and
What's happened?
The Israel–Iran confrontation, which started overnight on June 12th-13th, could have major implications for Turkey, touching on its regional and international diplomacy and economic vulnerabilities, as well as domestic politics. Turkey will continue to actively seek a return of Israel and Iran to the negotiating table.
What's happened?
In late May the president, Rodrigo Chaves, signed into law a constitutional amendment that allows both native-born and naturalised citizens to be extradited from Costa Rican soil for drug-trafficking and terrorism offences. More than two years in the making, the amendment was made in response to the
What's happened?
Bahrain is due to receive its second commercial liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargo shortly, out of six planned this year, marking the first time the kingdom has turned to LNG imports. The first 69,000-tonne cargo was delivered in April (from the US, via a trading company). The
What's happened?
Hunan Zhongke Electric, a Chinese company, has announced plans to develop a US$1.1bn plant producing materials for lithium-ion batteries (in increasing demand for use in the electric vehicle, EV, and energy-storage industries) at Sohar, a port and industrial city in the north-east. The plans mark one of
What's happened?
In mid-June 2025 Israel launched air strikes across Iran, killing over 220 people and targeting Iranian nuclear and military sites. On June 16th Iran retaliated with missile and drone attacks on Israeli cities, killing dozens and heightening regional tensions, which had already been elevated since the start
What's happened?
Eight Israelis were killed and nearly 300 others injured when Iranian ballistic missiles struck five locations across Israel on June 16th, marking the fourth day of escalating conflict. The latest attacks bring the total death toll in Israel to more than 20, and have damaged multiple population
What's happened?
On June 2nd Ukraine's Ministry of Finance missed a debt payment, totalling US$665m, on its GDP-linked warrants. This places the country in default. The outcome was made much more likely given the moratorium adopted by the government last year on respective payments and the recent failure of
What's happened?
Moldova is set to complete a critical electricity interconnection with Romania by the end of 2025—more than six months ahead of schedule. The project, backed by the EU, will allow Moldova to fully synchronise its grid with the EU's, severing its dependence on electricity generated in the
What's happened?
On June 10th the Cameroonian police ended their two-day blockade of the residence of Maurice Kamto, the leader of an opposition party, Mouvement pour la renaissance du Cameroun (MRC), allowing him to leave. After returning from France, where he held a political rally for the Cameroonian diaspora
What's happened?
On June 11th Hamas militants attacked a bus near the south-central city of Khan Yunis carrying two dozen local Palestinian workers of the Gaza Humanitarian Fund (GHF), killing at least eight. The attack against GHF—an aid initiative backed by the US and Israel to bypass Hamas and
What's happened?
The Israel–Iran confrontation, which started overnight on June 12th-13th, could have major implications for Turkey, touching on its regional and international diplomacy and economic vulnerabilities, as well as domestic politics. Turkey will continue to actively seek a return of Israel and Iran to the negotiating table.
What's happened?
In late May the president, Rodrigo Chaves, signed into law a constitutional amendment that allows both native-born and naturalised citizens to be extradited from Costa Rican soil for drug-trafficking and terrorism offences. More than two years in the making, the amendment was made in response to the
What's happened?
Bahrain is due to receive its second commercial liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargo shortly, out of six planned this year, marking the first time the kingdom has turned to LNG imports. The first 69,000-tonne cargo was delivered in April (from the US, via a trading company). The
What's happened?
Hunan Zhongke Electric, a Chinese company, has announced plans to develop a US$1.1bn plant producing materials for lithium-ion batteries (in increasing demand for use in the electric vehicle, EV, and energy-storage industries) at Sohar, a port and industrial city in the north-east. The plans mark one of
What's happened?
In mid-June 2025 Israel launched air strikes across Iran, killing over 220 people and targeting Iranian nuclear and military sites. On June 16th Iran retaliated with missile and drone attacks on Israeli cities, killing dozens and heightening regional tensions, which had already been elevated since the start
What's happened?
Eight Israelis were killed and nearly 300 others injured when Iranian ballistic missiles struck five locations across Israel on June 16th, marking the fourth day of escalating conflict. The latest attacks bring the total death toll in Israel to more than 20, and have damaged multiple population
Key trends Key changes since April 16th The US administration reached an agreement with China on scaling back some tariffs, alongside a limited initial trade deal with the UK. With uncertainty persisting, however, the growth forecast downgrades presented in the previous Global Outlook remain appropriate. EIU's revisions to several major
Cyber-attack successfully damages critical infrastructure, temporarily crippling a major economy Security risk scenario Risk intensity, probability and impact for Security risk scenario Risk intensity (probability x impact) Probability: Very low (1) – Very high (5) Impact: (Very low (1) – Very high (5) 9 Moderate Moderate Context Given the substantially
Key trends Key changes since March 20th While the US president, Donald Trump, has paused implementation of so-called reciprocal tariffs, he has proceeded with other levies, notably on China, which raise the weighted average tariff rate (WATR) on US imports to historically high levels. These tariffs exceed EIU’s previous expectations
Key trends Key changes since April 16th The US administration reached an agreement with China on scaling back some tariffs, alongside a limited initial trade deal with the UK. With uncertainty persisting, however, the growth forecast downgrades presented in the previous Global Outlook remain appropriate. EIU's revisions to several major
Cyber-attack successfully damages critical infrastructure, temporarily crippling a major economy Security risk scenario Risk intensity, probability and impact for Security risk scenario Risk intensity (probability x impact) Probability: Very low (1) – Very high (5) Impact: (Very low (1) – Very high (5) 9 Moderate Moderate Context Given the substantially
Key trends Key changes since March 20th While the US president, Donald Trump, has paused implementation of so-called reciprocal tariffs, he has proceeded with other levies, notably on China, which raise the weighted average tariff rate (WATR) on US imports to historically high levels. These tariffs exceed EIU’s previous expectations
Financial regulation Policy trends The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank) supervises the operation of banks and exercises regulatory powers over non-bank financial institutions with quasi-banking functions (including regulations on cryptocurrency business), under Section 12 of the New Central Bank Act of 1993. It is also responsible for
Nuclear Colombia has no commercial nuclear power capacity, but operates a 30-KW reactor for research purposes in the capital, Bogotá. The country participates in the International Atomic Energy Agency's (IAEA) technical co-operation programme, receiving training and security for its research reactor. We do not expect any commercial reactors to come
Coal We do not offer analysis for this sub-sector in this country. Electricity Electricity demand Chad's electricity demand is rising steadily, fuelled by rapid urbanisation in cities such as N’Djamena. As the population grows and industrial activity expands, the demand for reliable power is expected to far exceed current supply,
Five-year forecast Japan is the fourth-largest automotive market in the world after China, the US and India, with about 4.4m four-wheeled motor vehicles (passenger cars, trucks and buses) sold in 2024, according to the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association (JAMA). This marked a 10% year-on-year decline from 2023 levels, amid a
Financial regulation Policy trends A number of government bodies play roles in financial regulation in Pakistan. The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP, the central bank) is the watchdog for deposit-taking banks, as well as the monetary authority, the issuer of currency and the principal source of official statistics. In August
Energy policy Latest developments In February 2025, Brazil’s government approved joining OPEC+, a group of major oil-exporting countries. While non-OPEC members agree to cooperate with OPEC nations, Brazil will not be subject to binding obligations such as production cuts. Rather, its role will be limited to participating in discussions on
Five-year forecast China's healthcare system has undergone two decades of reform. Under the 14th five-year plan (2021-25), the government has expanded public health insurance coverage and reformed drug purchasing. A national conference in June 2024 concluded that China would expand primary healthcare capacity, deepen payment system reforms at public hospitals
Online retail Online retail sales forecast The coronavirus pandemic provided an impetus for growth in online shopping, which will gradually gain popularity among a large youth population with a high uptake of mobile subscriptions and tech savviness. Online retail is highly appealing to many consumers in Iran, because it offers
Coal Demand Kuwait does not use coal for electricity generation and has no plans to do so. Supply Kuwait does not produce any coal. Nuclear Nuclear power forecast Kuwait scrapped plans to develop nuclear-power plants following the Fukushima nuclear-power plant disaster in Japan in 2011 and is not expected to
Five-year forecast The Netherlands is the seventh-largest automotive market in the EU. The car-ownership rate (estimated at 530 per 1,000 population in 2024) is slightly lower than in most peer economies, reflecting a high degree of urbanisation, an extensive public transport network and a relatively strong environmental focus. Annual new-car
Financial regulation Policy trends The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank) supervises the operation of banks and exercises regulatory powers over non-bank financial institutions with quasi-banking functions (including regulations on cryptocurrency business), under Section 12 of the New Central Bank Act of 1993. It is also responsible for
Nuclear Colombia has no commercial nuclear power capacity, but operates a 30-KW reactor for research purposes in the capital, Bogotá. The country participates in the International Atomic Energy Agency's (IAEA) technical co-operation programme, receiving training and security for its research reactor. We do not expect any commercial reactors to come
Coal We do not offer analysis for this sub-sector in this country. Electricity Electricity demand Chad's electricity demand is rising steadily, fuelled by rapid urbanisation in cities such as N’Djamena. As the population grows and industrial activity expands, the demand for reliable power is expected to far exceed current supply,
Five-year forecast Japan is the fourth-largest automotive market in the world after China, the US and India, with about 4.4m four-wheeled motor vehicles (passenger cars, trucks and buses) sold in 2024, according to the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association (JAMA). This marked a 10% year-on-year decline from 2023 levels, amid a
Financial regulation Policy trends A number of government bodies play roles in financial regulation in Pakistan. The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP, the central bank) is the watchdog for deposit-taking banks, as well as the monetary authority, the issuer of currency and the principal source of official statistics. In August
Energy policy Latest developments In February 2025, Brazil’s government approved joining OPEC+, a group of major oil-exporting countries. While non-OPEC members agree to cooperate with OPEC nations, Brazil will not be subject to binding obligations such as production cuts. Rather, its role will be limited to participating in discussions on
Five-year forecast China's healthcare system has undergone two decades of reform. Under the 14th five-year plan (2021-25), the government has expanded public health insurance coverage and reformed drug purchasing. A national conference in June 2024 concluded that China would expand primary healthcare capacity, deepen payment system reforms at public hospitals
Online retail Online retail sales forecast The coronavirus pandemic provided an impetus for growth in online shopping, which will gradually gain popularity among a large youth population with a high uptake of mobile subscriptions and tech savviness. Online retail is highly appealing to many consumers in Iran, because it offers
Coal Demand Kuwait does not use coal for electricity generation and has no plans to do so. Supply Kuwait does not produce any coal. Nuclear Nuclear power forecast Kuwait scrapped plans to develop nuclear-power plants following the Fukushima nuclear-power plant disaster in Japan in 2011 and is not expected to
Five-year forecast The Netherlands is the seventh-largest automotive market in the EU. The car-ownership rate (estimated at 530 per 1,000 population in 2024) is slightly lower than in most peer economies, reflecting a high degree of urbanisation, an extensive public transport network and a relatively strong environmental focus. Annual new-car
