Welcome to the ICTF Country Risk Ratings and News Analysis site, powered with content from the Economist Intelligence Unit.
What's happened?
Real GDP shrank by 0.8% quarter on quarter on a seasonally-adjusted basis in July-September. As the economy’s performance in April-June was revised from flat to a contraction of 0.8%, this meant that the economy was back in recession for the third time since the covid-19 pandemic struck
What's happened?
The Kuwaiti-Iraqi Joint Technical Committee has met to discuss maritime border demarcation. This is the first meeting of the committee since a ruling by Iraq's Federal Supreme Court invalidated its parliament's ratification of an agreement on navigation rights in the shared Khor Abdullah waterway in September 2023.
We expect Donald Trump to bring both Ukraine and Russia to the negotiating table after he takes office as US president in January 2025. After nearly three years of war, rhetoric on both sides is changing, and both Ukraine and Russia have indicated a willingness to participate in peace talks.
What's happened?
Industrial production contracted by 1.3% year on year in October. While this marks a decline for the tenth consecutive month, it is the smallest contraction in this period. The most pronounced falls were in consumer durables (13.5%), intermediate goods (6.2%) and capital goods (2.9%).
Why does
What’s happened?
Monthly inflation soared back into double digits in November according to the Observatorio Venezolano de Finanzas (OVF, a local think-tank) which estimated a rate of 12.6% for the month. Official inflation data for that month has yet to be released, but a significantly lower official rate for
What's happened?
On December 12th the Costa Rican president, Rodrigo Chaves, and the president of the Instituto Costarricense de Electricidad (ICE, the state-owned electricity supplier) announced that Costa Rica had filed criminal charges against the local arm of Huawei (a Chinese telecommunications firm), its representative in Costa Rica, and
What's happened?
The UK will maintain its autonomous tariff quota (ATQ) for Belize’s raw cane sugar, ensuring preferential access to the UK market for one of Belize’s most important exports. The agreement, renewed in November, reaffirms the interest by the UK government in maintaining strong trade relations with its
What's happened?
On November 20th Congress approved a competition law, sponsored by the still-suspended Movimiento Semilla (Semilla). After a round of negotiations between Semilla deputies and other parties, the government secured 122 out of 160 votes. After it was first proposed in 2016 under a former president, Jimmy Morales
What's happened?
A corruption scandal involving Koldo García, a former adviser to José Luis Ábalos during his tenure as public works minister (2018-20), has intensified in recent weeks. The scandal, which broke earlier this year, centres on allegations that Mr García exploited his position for personal financial gain during
What's happened?
On December 16th opposition members of parliament (MPs) withdrew a no-confidence motion against the prime minister, Jeremiah Manele, citing inadequate support, hours before the motion would be put to the vote.
The motion had been proposed by the MP for Central Honiara, Gordon Darcy Lilo, on
What's happened?
Real GDP shrank by 0.8% quarter on quarter on a seasonally-adjusted basis in July-September. As the economy’s performance in April-June was revised from flat to a contraction of 0.8%, this meant that the economy was back in recession for the third time since the covid-19 pandemic struck
What's happened?
The Kuwaiti-Iraqi Joint Technical Committee has met to discuss maritime border demarcation. This is the first meeting of the committee since a ruling by Iraq's Federal Supreme Court invalidated its parliament's ratification of an agreement on navigation rights in the shared Khor Abdullah waterway in September 2023.
We expect Donald Trump to bring both Ukraine and Russia to the negotiating table after he takes office as US president in January 2025. After nearly three years of war, rhetoric on both sides is changing, and both Ukraine and Russia have indicated a willingness to participate in peace talks.
What's happened?
Industrial production contracted by 1.3% year on year in October. While this marks a decline for the tenth consecutive month, it is the smallest contraction in this period. The most pronounced falls were in consumer durables (13.5%), intermediate goods (6.2%) and capital goods (2.9%).
Why does
What’s happened?
Monthly inflation soared back into double digits in November according to the Observatorio Venezolano de Finanzas (OVF, a local think-tank) which estimated a rate of 12.6% for the month. Official inflation data for that month has yet to be released, but a significantly lower official rate for
What's happened?
On December 12th the Costa Rican president, Rodrigo Chaves, and the president of the Instituto Costarricense de Electricidad (ICE, the state-owned electricity supplier) announced that Costa Rica had filed criminal charges against the local arm of Huawei (a Chinese telecommunications firm), its representative in Costa Rica, and
What's happened?
The UK will maintain its autonomous tariff quota (ATQ) for Belize’s raw cane sugar, ensuring preferential access to the UK market for one of Belize’s most important exports. The agreement, renewed in November, reaffirms the interest by the UK government in maintaining strong trade relations with its
What's happened?
On November 20th Congress approved a competition law, sponsored by the still-suspended Movimiento Semilla (Semilla). After a round of negotiations between Semilla deputies and other parties, the government secured 122 out of 160 votes. After it was first proposed in 2016 under a former president, Jimmy Morales
What's happened?
A corruption scandal involving Koldo García, a former adviser to José Luis Ábalos during his tenure as public works minister (2018-20), has intensified in recent weeks. The scandal, which broke earlier this year, centres on allegations that Mr García exploited his position for personal financial gain during
What's happened?
On December 16th opposition members of parliament (MPs) withdrew a no-confidence motion against the prime minister, Jeremiah Manele, citing inadequate support, hours before the motion would be put to the vote.
The motion had been proposed by the MP for Central Honiara, Gordon Darcy Lilo, on
Key trends Geopolitical risk will continue to weigh on the outlook. EIU’s baseline forecasts continue to rule out a war emerging in the Middle East or Asia comparable to that of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but even the threat of geopolitical conflict will lead to economic reconfiguration, policy divergence and
Key trends Geopolitical risk will continue to weigh on the outlook. EIU’s baseline forecasts continue to rule out a war emerging in the Middle East or Asia comparable to that of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but even the threat of geopolitical conflict will lead to economic reconfiguration, policy divergence and
Key trends Geopolitical risk will continue to weigh on the outlook. EIU’s baseline forecasts continue to rule out a war emerging in the Middle East or Asia comparable to that of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but we expect that even the threat of geopolitical conflict will lead to economic fragmentation,
Key trends Geopolitical risk will continue to weigh on the outlook. EIU’s baseline forecasts continue to rule out a war emerging in the Middle East or Asia comparable to that of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but even the threat of geopolitical conflict will lead to economic reconfiguration, policy divergence and
Key trends Geopolitical risk will continue to weigh on the outlook. EIU’s baseline forecasts continue to rule out a war emerging in the Middle East or Asia comparable to that of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but even the threat of geopolitical conflict will lead to economic reconfiguration, policy divergence and
Key trends Geopolitical risk will continue to weigh on the outlook. EIU’s baseline forecasts continue to rule out a war emerging in the Middle East or Asia comparable to that of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but we expect that even the threat of geopolitical conflict will lead to economic fragmentation,
Consumer goods and retail report: Overview China is the world’s second-largest economy and consumer market. Private consumption has been the fastest-growing segment of the economy since the reopening from zero covid at end-2022. EIU has a broadly positive outlook for consumption growth in 2024, which bodes well not just for
Automotive report: Overview Hong Kong, a special administrative region of the People’s Republic of China, has high levels of disposable income, but its small land area, and urbanised, high-density population and a well-developed public transport network limit the size of the new vehicle market. In full-year 2024 EIU estimates that
Healthcare report: Healthcare spending Overview EIU forecasts that the US will spend 16.6% of its GDP on healthcare in 2025-more than any other country. This share has fallen from a peak of 18.6% at the height of the covid-19 pandemic in 2020, but is still up from 12.5% in 2000.
Telecommunications report: Overview Colombia is the fourth-largest mobile market in Latin America, behind Brazil, Mexico and Argentina. The president, Gustavo Petro, was elected in June 2022. His priorities for the telecoms sector are to boost connectivity and digital development, but ongoing political difficulties mean that he will struggle to pass
Telecommunications report: Overview Mexico is Latin America’s third-largest market in terms of mobile subscriptions, and 5G services are available, albeit in a limited number of areas (a full auction has been delayed several times). Despite a 2014 reform, América Móvil (a domestic company) remains the dominant market player; Telefónica (Spain)
Energy report: Overview EIU expects that Indonesia’s gross domestic energy consumption will increase by 2.8% year on year in 2025 and grow at an annual average of 2.7% in the forecast period (2025-34), on the back of strong economic expansion. Average electricity consumption will increase at an annual average of
Automotive report: Overview Japan is the fourth-largest automotive market in the world after China, the US and India, with about 4.8m four-wheeled motor vehicles (passenger cars, trucks and buses) sold in 2023, according to the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association (JAMA). Japan is also the world’s third-largest automotive producer, after China
Healthcare report: Healthcare spending Overview China’s healthcare system has undergone two decades of reform. Under the 14th five-year plan (2021-25), announced in March 2021, the government has expanded the coverage of public health insurance and reformed drug purchasing. A national conference in June 2024 concluded that China will expand primary
Energy report: Overview EIU expects that energy use will maintain its declining trend in 2025, with gross domestic energy consumption to decrease year on year by 2% in fiscal year 2024/25 (April-March) and by 1% in 2025/26. We forecast that gross domestic energy consumption will continue to decline throughout the
Telecommunications report: Overview India’s telecommunications sector is a price-competitive market that is characterised by regulatory challenges and a continuing debt problem. The country has one of the lowest levels of average revenue per user (ARPU), at about US$2. The mobile sector is turning into a duopoly between Bharti Airtel and
Consumer goods and retail report: Overview China is the world’s second-largest economy and consumer market. Private consumption has been the fastest-growing segment of the economy since the reopening from zero covid at end-2022. EIU has a broadly positive outlook for consumption growth in 2024, which bodes well not just for
Automotive report: Overview Hong Kong, a special administrative region of the People’s Republic of China, has high levels of disposable income, but its small land area, and urbanised, high-density population and a well-developed public transport network limit the size of the new vehicle market. In full-year 2024 EIU estimates that
Healthcare report: Healthcare spending Overview EIU forecasts that the US will spend 16.6% of its GDP on healthcare in 2025-more than any other country. This share has fallen from a peak of 18.6% at the height of the covid-19 pandemic in 2020, but is still up from 12.5% in 2000.
Telecommunications report: Overview Colombia is the fourth-largest mobile market in Latin America, behind Brazil, Mexico and Argentina. The president, Gustavo Petro, was elected in June 2022. His priorities for the telecoms sector are to boost connectivity and digital development, but ongoing political difficulties mean that he will struggle to pass
Telecommunications report: Overview Mexico is Latin America’s third-largest market in terms of mobile subscriptions, and 5G services are available, albeit in a limited number of areas (a full auction has been delayed several times). Despite a 2014 reform, América Móvil (a domestic company) remains the dominant market player; Telefónica (Spain)
Energy report: Overview EIU expects that Indonesia’s gross domestic energy consumption will increase by 2.8% year on year in 2025 and grow at an annual average of 2.7% in the forecast period (2025-34), on the back of strong economic expansion. Average electricity consumption will increase at an annual average of
Automotive report: Overview Japan is the fourth-largest automotive market in the world after China, the US and India, with about 4.8m four-wheeled motor vehicles (passenger cars, trucks and buses) sold in 2023, according to the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association (JAMA). Japan is also the world’s third-largest automotive producer, after China
Healthcare report: Healthcare spending Overview China’s healthcare system has undergone two decades of reform. Under the 14th five-year plan (2021-25), announced in March 2021, the government has expanded the coverage of public health insurance and reformed drug purchasing. A national conference in June 2024 concluded that China will expand primary
Energy report: Overview EIU expects that energy use will maintain its declining trend in 2025, with gross domestic energy consumption to decrease year on year by 2% in fiscal year 2024/25 (April-March) and by 1% in 2025/26. We forecast that gross domestic energy consumption will continue to decline throughout the
Telecommunications report: Overview India’s telecommunications sector is a price-competitive market that is characterised by regulatory challenges and a continuing debt problem. The country has one of the lowest levels of average revenue per user (ARPU), at about US$2. The mobile sector is turning into a duopoly between Bharti Airtel and
