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(Forecast closing date: May 14th 2024)
Global power changes are leading to greater conflict and competition
The global geopolitical environment is characterised by increasing competition and conflict. The confrontation that has emerged between Israel and Iran highlights the ongoing risk of a regional war in the Middle East as
US growth will prove resilient, aided by consumer spending and investment
EIU expects US economic growth to remain fairly resilient, with no recession in sight. Real GDP growth of 2.2% is forecast for 2024, moderating to 1.8% in 2025. The healthy outlook for the world’s largest economy reflects the
The European economy is set for a gradual recovery
Slightly stronger momentum will build behind the European economy in 2024, after a challenging 2023. The uptick will be driven by stronger private consumption, reflecting easing inflation and strong wage growth, which will boost real incomes. A rebound in global
Asia’s growth is decelerating, but will still outpace other regions
Regional growth trends in Asia will be mixed in 2024. On the upside, demand for global electronics will start to recover after a slump, underpinning trade. On the downside, delayed monetary policy easing in the US and sticky inflation
Growth in Latin America will moderate in 2024
Tight global financial conditions-amid higher-for-longer interest rates-and weaker export growth will weigh on Latin America’s aggregate real GDP growth, which will slow to 1.9% in 2024. Resilience in the US economy, firm inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI)-boosted by nearshoring and
Inventory restocking will lift global trade in 2024
EIU expects global trade to recover in 2024, after a shallow contraction in 2023, despite its view that global economic growth will be unchanged. Our forecast is based on inventory restocking and an upswing in the global electronics cycle-factors that have
Global assumptions
(Forecast closing date: May 14th 2024)
Population growth will slow in 2024-28 adding to fiscal pressures
The Swiss population stood at 8.8m at the end of 2023. Population growth has been relatively strong since the late 1980s, driven primarily by migrant inflows and naturalisation. The birth rate has remained fairly stable over the past decade.
Market opportunities: Social indicators and living standards
Long-term outlook: The long-term outlook
Initial conditions: Switzerland is an affluent country by international standards. In a west European context, its GDP per head is well above the regional average. The country has many attributes that are conducive to sustainable long-term growth, including a skilled workforce, good infrastructure and stable
(Forecast closing date: May 14th 2024)
Global power changes are leading to greater conflict and competition
The global geopolitical environment is characterised by increasing competition and conflict. The confrontation that has emerged between Israel and Iran highlights the ongoing risk of a regional war in the Middle East as
US growth will prove resilient, aided by consumer spending and investment
EIU expects US economic growth to remain fairly resilient, with no recession in sight. Real GDP growth of 2.2% is forecast for 2024, moderating to 1.8% in 2025. The healthy outlook for the world’s largest economy reflects the
The European economy is set for a gradual recovery
Slightly stronger momentum will build behind the European economy in 2024, after a challenging 2023. The uptick will be driven by stronger private consumption, reflecting easing inflation and strong wage growth, which will boost real incomes. A rebound in global
Asia’s growth is decelerating, but will still outpace other regions
Regional growth trends in Asia will be mixed in 2024. On the upside, demand for global electronics will start to recover after a slump, underpinning trade. On the downside, delayed monetary policy easing in the US and sticky inflation
Growth in Latin America will moderate in 2024
Tight global financial conditions-amid higher-for-longer interest rates-and weaker export growth will weigh on Latin America’s aggregate real GDP growth, which will slow to 1.9% in 2024. Resilience in the US economy, firm inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI)-boosted by nearshoring and
Inventory restocking will lift global trade in 2024
EIU expects global trade to recover in 2024, after a shallow contraction in 2023, despite its view that global economic growth will be unchanged. Our forecast is based on inventory restocking and an upswing in the global electronics cycle-factors that have
Global assumptions
(Forecast closing date: May 14th 2024)
Population growth will slow in 2024-28 adding to fiscal pressures
The Swiss population stood at 8.8m at the end of 2023. Population growth has been relatively strong since the late 1980s, driven primarily by migrant inflows and naturalisation. The birth rate has remained fairly stable over the past decade.
Market opportunities: Social indicators and living standards
Long-term outlook: The long-term outlook
Initial conditions: Switzerland is an affluent country by international standards. In a west European context, its GDP per head is well above the regional average. The country has many attributes that are conducive to sustainable long-term growth, including a skilled workforce, good infrastructure and stable
Key trends Geopolitical risk is weighing on the outlook. EIU’s baseline forecasts continue to rule out a war emerging in the Middle East or Asia comparable to that of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but we expect that even the threat of geopolitical conflict will lead to economic fragmentation, policy divergence
Key trends Geopolitical risk is weighing on the outlook for the global economy. EIU’s baseline forecasts continue to rule out a war emerging in the Middle East or Asia comparable to that of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but the dangerous confrontation that has emerged between Iran and Israel has highlighted
Key trends High interest rates and geopolitical competition are constraining global growth, but recession risks have receded. Global real GDP is forecast to expand by 2.4% in 2024, marginally below estimated growth of 2.5% in 2023. The US economy is forecast to remain resilient, and moderate stimulus in China will
Key trends Geopolitical risk is weighing on the outlook. EIU’s baseline forecasts continue to rule out a war emerging in the Middle East or Asia comparable to that of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but we expect that even the threat of geopolitical conflict will lead to economic fragmentation, policy divergence
Key trends Geopolitical risk is weighing on the outlook for the global economy. EIU’s baseline forecasts continue to rule out a war emerging in the Middle East or Asia comparable to that of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but the dangerous confrontation that has emerged between Iran and Israel has highlighted
Key trends High interest rates and geopolitical competition are constraining global growth, but recession risks have receded. Global real GDP is forecast to expand by 2.4% in 2024, marginally below estimated growth of 2.5% in 2023. The US economy is forecast to remain resilient, and moderate stimulus in China will
Healthcare report: Healthcare spending Overview In the past two decades Turkey has made rapid advances in population health and access to healthcare. Almost all the resident population is covered by the universal health insurance system. In addition, registered Syrian refugees, of whom there were 3.1m in mid-May 2024, are provided
Consumer goods and retail report: Overview Japan has a large, affluent consumer sector, with per-head disposable income forecast to exceed US$20,170 in 2024. The country’s population of 124m makes it one of the world’s largest retail markets, even though it is likely to become an ageing society over the long
Healthcare report: Healthcare spending Overview Argentina’s healthcare sector has come under increasing pressure against the backdrop of a deteriorating economy. This will continue, at least in the short term, as the new government, led by Javier Milei, attempts to push through a package of structural and fiscal reforms. More specifically,
Healthcare report: Healthcare spending Overview The Indian healthcare system is underfunded, with poor access, affordability and regulatory oversight, while costs are growing. EIU estimates that India spent 3% of its GDP on healthcare in 2023-just above what it spent in 2019, when the covid-19 pandemic first emerged. Public healthcare spending
Automotive report: Overview South Korea is one of the world’s largest vehicle producers, but not one of the largest consumers, owing to its relatively small population. After new vehicle sales recovered in 2023, EIU expects it to grow at a moderate pace in our forecast period (2024-28). In the long
Consumer goods and retail report : Overview Malaysia is an important consumer market in South-east Asia, with over 50% of households expected to earn more than US$25,000 in 2024. In 2024-28 private consumption will remain the leading driver of Malaysia’s economic growth. Households’ purchasing power and real wage growth will
Consumer goods and retail report: Overview Indonesia is one of the largest markets in South-east Asia. The size of its population and rapidly growing income levels make it an attractive retail market in the region for investors. EIU expects 54% of the population to earn more than US$10,000 by 2028.
Consumer goods and retail report: Overview Canada is a high-income but not very populous consumer market with an ageing working population. EIU expects consumer demand to recover in the second half of 2024, primarily owing to slowing inflation. Canada is a more challenging market for retailers than the US. Higher
Healthcare report: Healthcare spending Overview Spain’s expenditure on healthcare as a share of GDP was an estimated 10.3% in 2022. This was a slight dip from 10.7% in 2020 and 10.6% in 2021, reflecting the impact of the covid-19 pandemic on health spending. EIU estimates that, as the pandemic waned
Consumer goods and retail report: Overview Brazil is Latin America’s most populous country and the region’s largest retail market. Falling unemployment rates and slower disinflation bode well for the consumer goods and retail sector in 2024 and should therefore boost real growth in retail sales volumes despite high interest rates.
Healthcare report: Healthcare spending Overview In the past two decades Turkey has made rapid advances in population health and access to healthcare. Almost all the resident population is covered by the universal health insurance system. In addition, registered Syrian refugees, of whom there were 3.1m in mid-May 2024, are provided
Consumer goods and retail report: Overview Japan has a large, affluent consumer sector, with per-head disposable income forecast to exceed US$20,170 in 2024. The country’s population of 124m makes it one of the world’s largest retail markets, even though it is likely to become an ageing society over the long
Healthcare report: Healthcare spending Overview Argentina’s healthcare sector has come under increasing pressure against the backdrop of a deteriorating economy. This will continue, at least in the short term, as the new government, led by Javier Milei, attempts to push through a package of structural and fiscal reforms. More specifically,
Healthcare report: Healthcare spending Overview The Indian healthcare system is underfunded, with poor access, affordability and regulatory oversight, while costs are growing. EIU estimates that India spent 3% of its GDP on healthcare in 2023-just above what it spent in 2019, when the covid-19 pandemic first emerged. Public healthcare spending
Automotive report: Overview South Korea is one of the world’s largest vehicle producers, but not one of the largest consumers, owing to its relatively small population. After new vehicle sales recovered in 2023, EIU expects it to grow at a moderate pace in our forecast period (2024-28). In the long
Consumer goods and retail report : Overview Malaysia is an important consumer market in South-east Asia, with over 50% of households expected to earn more than US$25,000 in 2024. In 2024-28 private consumption will remain the leading driver of Malaysia’s economic growth. Households’ purchasing power and real wage growth will
Consumer goods and retail report: Overview Indonesia is one of the largest markets in South-east Asia. The size of its population and rapidly growing income levels make it an attractive retail market in the region for investors. EIU expects 54% of the population to earn more than US$10,000 by 2028.
Consumer goods and retail report: Overview Canada is a high-income but not very populous consumer market with an ageing working population. EIU expects consumer demand to recover in the second half of 2024, primarily owing to slowing inflation. Canada is a more challenging market for retailers than the US. Higher
Healthcare report: Healthcare spending Overview Spain’s expenditure on healthcare as a share of GDP was an estimated 10.3% in 2022. This was a slight dip from 10.7% in 2020 and 10.6% in 2021, reflecting the impact of the covid-19 pandemic on health spending. EIU estimates that, as the pandemic waned
Consumer goods and retail report: Overview Brazil is Latin America’s most populous country and the region’s largest retail market. Falling unemployment rates and slower disinflation bode well for the consumer goods and retail sector in 2024 and should therefore boost real growth in retail sales volumes despite high interest rates.
While the global downturn and tighter financial conditions weigh on the outlook for the region, elevated commodity prices will still support South American commodity-exporting countries but keep Central American and Caribbean oil-importing economies under strain. Amid persistent inflationary pressures, which have been exacerbated by the Russia-Ukraine war and supply disruptions,
The global economy was more resilient than expected in late 2022
Global economic activity was more resilient than expected in late 2022, and started 2023 on a slightly firmer footing. Europe appears to have avoided a recession in the winter of 2022/23, in large part owing to warmer than
The global downturn and tighter financial conditions weigh on the outlook for the region. That said, commodity prices will still provide support for South American commodity-exporting countries, while keeping Central American and Caribbean oil-importing economies under strain. Amid persistent inflationary pressures, worsened by the Russia-Ukraine war and supply disruptions, Latin
While the global downturn and tighter financial conditions weigh on the outlook for the region, elevated commodity prices will still support South American commodity-exporting countries but keep Central American and Caribbean oil-importing economies under strain. Amid persistent inflationary pressures, which have been exacerbated by the Russia-Ukraine war and supply disruptions,
The global economy was more resilient than expected in late 2022
Global economic activity was more resilient than expected in late 2022, and started 2023 on a slightly firmer footing. Europe appears to have avoided a recession in the winter of 2022/23, in large part owing to warmer than
The global downturn and tighter financial conditions weigh on the outlook for the region. That said, commodity prices will still provide support for South American commodity-exporting countries, while keeping Central American and Caribbean oil-importing economies under strain. Amid persistent inflationary pressures, worsened by the Russia-Ukraine war and supply disruptions, Latin
