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What’s happened?
Cambodia’s exports grew strongly by 18% year on year to US$6.3bn in the first three months of 2024. Meanwhile, imports increased by 6.4% to US$6.2bn, according to data from the General Department of Customs and Excise.
Why does it matter?
Cambodia’s international trade is emerging from a slump
Business investment in Canada has become a major drag on the economy, falling for six of the past seven quarters. The contraction in 2022-23 extends a much longer slump, which dates back to the fall in global oil prices that occurred in 2014. Although much of the recent
What’s happened?
In February real GDP declined by 0.9% month on month in Norway, according to Statistics Norway. This was down from flat growth in January. The Norwegian economy will probably remain register minimal growth in the near term. We expect that real GDP growth will accelerate more meaningfully in
EIU’s Global Outlook for May 2024 is now available. Below we highlight several important changes from our April 2024 outlook, as well as the trends that will shape the global economy and geopolitics this year and beyond:
We have not changed our view on the Middle East conflict following the confrontation
US concern rises over Chinese car investments in Mexico
The US Treasury secretary, Janet Yellen, has recently warned China against flooding the global market with subsidised green exports, including electric vehicles (EVs), and the EU has also raised the alarm. US concerns are growing over apparent plans by Chinese carmakers
What’s happened?
On April 16th the finance minister, Chrystia Freeland, unveiled the federal government’s budget for fiscal year 2024/25 (July-June). The budget includes additional spending of C$52.9bn (US$40bn) over the next five years in areas designed to reduce the cost of living for middle-class Canadians. Given that debt repayments will
What’s happened?
On April 9th the IMF issued its technical assistance report on Eswatini, which showed that the share of non-performing loans (NPLs) is rising, from 5.6% at the peak of the coronavirus pandemic in 2021 to 7.5% in 2023, driven mainly by household delinquencies. The banking sector remains stable,
The population will grow at an average rate of 0.2% per year in 2024-28, slightly slower than in the historical period and the slowest growth rate among the major South Asian countries. The slow rate of growth partly reflects emigration. EIU forecasts that Sri Lanka’s population will reach 22.1m in
Market opportunities: Social indicators and living standards
Long-term outlook: The long-term outlook
Initial conditions: In the 1970s the government headed by the United National Party (UNP), which has traditionally favoured free markets, started to liberalise the Sri Lankan economy. This trend has continued, albeit erratically, under successive governments. Before the onset of the pandemic in 2020, the island
What’s happened?
Cambodia’s exports grew strongly by 18% year on year to US$6.3bn in the first three months of 2024. Meanwhile, imports increased by 6.4% to US$6.2bn, according to data from the General Department of Customs and Excise.
Why does it matter?
Cambodia’s international trade is emerging from a slump
Business investment in Canada has become a major drag on the economy, falling for six of the past seven quarters. The contraction in 2022-23 extends a much longer slump, which dates back to the fall in global oil prices that occurred in 2014. Although much of the recent
What’s happened?
In February real GDP declined by 0.9% month on month in Norway, according to Statistics Norway. This was down from flat growth in January. The Norwegian economy will probably remain register minimal growth in the near term. We expect that real GDP growth will accelerate more meaningfully in
EIU’s Global Outlook for May 2024 is now available. Below we highlight several important changes from our April 2024 outlook, as well as the trends that will shape the global economy and geopolitics this year and beyond:
We have not changed our view on the Middle East conflict following the confrontation
US concern rises over Chinese car investments in Mexico
The US Treasury secretary, Janet Yellen, has recently warned China against flooding the global market with subsidised green exports, including electric vehicles (EVs), and the EU has also raised the alarm. US concerns are growing over apparent plans by Chinese carmakers
What’s happened?
On April 16th the finance minister, Chrystia Freeland, unveiled the federal government’s budget for fiscal year 2024/25 (July-June). The budget includes additional spending of C$52.9bn (US$40bn) over the next five years in areas designed to reduce the cost of living for middle-class Canadians. Given that debt repayments will
What’s happened?
On April 9th the IMF issued its technical assistance report on Eswatini, which showed that the share of non-performing loans (NPLs) is rising, from 5.6% at the peak of the coronavirus pandemic in 2021 to 7.5% in 2023, driven mainly by household delinquencies. The banking sector remains stable,
The population will grow at an average rate of 0.2% per year in 2024-28, slightly slower than in the historical period and the slowest growth rate among the major South Asian countries. The slow rate of growth partly reflects emigration. EIU forecasts that Sri Lanka’s population will reach 22.1m in
Market opportunities: Social indicators and living standards
Long-term outlook: The long-term outlook
Initial conditions: In the 1970s the government headed by the United National Party (UNP), which has traditionally favoured free markets, started to liberalise the Sri Lankan economy. This trend has continued, albeit erratically, under successive governments. Before the onset of the pandemic in 2020, the island
Key trends Geopolitical risk is weighing on the outlook for the global economy. EIU’s baseline forecasts continue to rule out a war emerging in the Middle East or Asia comparable to that of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but the dangerous confrontation that has emerged between Iran and Israel has highlighted
Key trends High interest rates and geopolitical competition are constraining global growth, but recession risks have receded. Global real GDP is forecast to expand by 2.4% in 2024, marginally below estimated growth of 2.5% in 2023. The US economy is forecast to remain resilient, and moderate stimulus in China will
Key trends Geopolitical shocks are weighing on the outlook. EIU sees geopolitical tensions, as stoked by the Israel-Hamas war, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and US-China rivalry, leading to economic fragmentation and supply-chain reorganisation. Uncertainty over the foreign policy direction that the US will take after what is likely to be
Key trends Geopolitical risk is weighing on the outlook for the global economy. EIU’s baseline forecasts continue to rule out a war emerging in the Middle East or Asia comparable to that of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but the dangerous confrontation that has emerged between Iran and Israel has highlighted
Key trends High interest rates and geopolitical competition are constraining global growth, but recession risks have receded. Global real GDP is forecast to expand by 2.4% in 2024, marginally below estimated growth of 2.5% in 2023. The US economy is forecast to remain resilient, and moderate stimulus in China will
Key trends Geopolitical shocks are weighing on the outlook. EIU sees geopolitical tensions, as stoked by the Israel-Hamas war, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and US-China rivalry, leading to economic fragmentation and supply-chain reorganisation. Uncertainty over the foreign policy direction that the US will take after what is likely to be
Telecommunications report: Overview The French telecommunications market is mature, with four fully convergent players. Capital expenditure in the forecast period (2024-28) will be split between the expansion of 5G mobile networks and fibre networks as companies work to meet the coverage targets set by the government for mobile and internet
Telecommunications report: Overview The information and communications technology (ICT) sector accounts for less than 2% of Azerbaijan’s GDP. Investment in telecommunications and technology has been low for the past decade. Foreign investors have been hesitant to invest in the country’s ICT sector, owing to widespread corruption, a weak judicial system,
Automotive report: Overview Although Finland is the fifth-largest EU member state in terms of territory, with a population of 5.5m, it is one of the smallest markets in western Europe. About 20% of the population live in the capital, Helsinki, and urbanisation across the country is high (as in other
Automotive report: Overview The UK’s automotive industry is in gradual structural decline. It is an integral part of the manufacturing sector, comprising 10% of goods exports, but vehicle production has fallen significantly since 2016 and prospects appear relatively unfavourable. This reflects various factors: the UK’s gradual relative economic decline and
Telecommunications report: Overview Sweden has a competitive and mature telecoms market, with four key players on the mobile side, and three main ones on the fixed side. Both 5G and fibre are widely available, with the latter having also been rolled out by multiple local players, especially in less dense
Telecommunications report: Overview The telecoms market in Canada is mature, but there are still growth opportunities, particularly in more remote areas, among the fast-rising immigrant population and amid the rise in new technologies. The country’s top three operators-Bell, Telus and Rogers-account for 90% of mobile subscriptions, and Rogers’ acquisition of
Telecommunications report: Overview Competition, technological convergence and consolidation have been the market’s main drivers in recent years. The Digital Spain 2025 agenda sets out about 50 measures based on ten strategic priorities, including a guarantee of nationwide 100-Mbps broadband coverage by 2025, accelerating the 5G spectrum rollout, improving digital skills
Telecommunications report: Overview Germany is the largest telecommunications market in Europe; only modest growth in mobile subscriptions and internet users is expected over the forecast period owing to the maturity of the market. Accelerated plans for fibre-to-the-home (FTTH) rollout, ongoing 4G/5G network builds and targeted policy support (including EU grants
Automotive report: Overview Portugal’s new-vehicle market is relatively small, and has been volatile for the past two decades. After falling during the covid-19 pandemic, the market has been recovering, and sales surged strongly in 2023. EIU expects a small correction in 2024, followed by subdued growth over the forecast period.
Automotive report: Overview Colombia is the fourth-largest vehicle producer in Latin America. The automotive industry accounts for 1.7% of GDP, and generates more than 45,000 jobs directly and 330,000 indirectly. However, despite having a total production capacity of about 320,000 units at 12 plants, automakers in Colombia assembled only about
Telecommunications report: Overview The French telecommunications market is mature, with four fully convergent players. Capital expenditure in the forecast period (2024-28) will be split between the expansion of 5G mobile networks and fibre networks as companies work to meet the coverage targets set by the government for mobile and internet
Telecommunications report: Overview The information and communications technology (ICT) sector accounts for less than 2% of Azerbaijan’s GDP. Investment in telecommunications and technology has been low for the past decade. Foreign investors have been hesitant to invest in the country’s ICT sector, owing to widespread corruption, a weak judicial system,
Automotive report: Overview Although Finland is the fifth-largest EU member state in terms of territory, with a population of 5.5m, it is one of the smallest markets in western Europe. About 20% of the population live in the capital, Helsinki, and urbanisation across the country is high (as in other
Automotive report: Overview The UK’s automotive industry is in gradual structural decline. It is an integral part of the manufacturing sector, comprising 10% of goods exports, but vehicle production has fallen significantly since 2016 and prospects appear relatively unfavourable. This reflects various factors: the UK’s gradual relative economic decline and
Telecommunications report: Overview Sweden has a competitive and mature telecoms market, with four key players on the mobile side, and three main ones on the fixed side. Both 5G and fibre are widely available, with the latter having also been rolled out by multiple local players, especially in less dense
Telecommunications report: Overview The telecoms market in Canada is mature, but there are still growth opportunities, particularly in more remote areas, among the fast-rising immigrant population and amid the rise in new technologies. The country’s top three operators-Bell, Telus and Rogers-account for 90% of mobile subscriptions, and Rogers’ acquisition of
Telecommunications report: Overview Competition, technological convergence and consolidation have been the market’s main drivers in recent years. The Digital Spain 2025 agenda sets out about 50 measures based on ten strategic priorities, including a guarantee of nationwide 100-Mbps broadband coverage by 2025, accelerating the 5G spectrum rollout, improving digital skills
Telecommunications report: Overview Germany is the largest telecommunications market in Europe; only modest growth in mobile subscriptions and internet users is expected over the forecast period owing to the maturity of the market. Accelerated plans for fibre-to-the-home (FTTH) rollout, ongoing 4G/5G network builds and targeted policy support (including EU grants
Automotive report: Overview Portugal’s new-vehicle market is relatively small, and has been volatile for the past two decades. After falling during the covid-19 pandemic, the market has been recovering, and sales surged strongly in 2023. EIU expects a small correction in 2024, followed by subdued growth over the forecast period.
Automotive report: Overview Colombia is the fourth-largest vehicle producer in Latin America. The automotive industry accounts for 1.7% of GDP, and generates more than 45,000 jobs directly and 330,000 indirectly. However, despite having a total production capacity of about 320,000 units at 12 plants, automakers in Colombia assembled only about
While the global downturn and tighter financial conditions weigh on the outlook for the region, elevated commodity prices will still support South American commodity-exporting countries but keep Central American and Caribbean oil-importing economies under strain. Amid persistent inflationary pressures, which have been exacerbated by the Russia-Ukraine war and supply disruptions,
The global economy was more resilient than expected in late 2022
Global economic activity was more resilient than expected in late 2022, and started 2023 on a slightly firmer footing. Europe appears to have avoided a recession in the winter of 2022/23, in large part owing to warmer than usual
The global downturn and tighter financial conditions weigh on the outlook for the region. That said, commodity prices will still provide support for South American commodity-exporting countries, while keeping Central American and Caribbean oil-importing economies under strain. Amid persistent inflationary pressures, worsened by the Russia-Ukraine war and supply disruptions, Latin
While the global downturn and tighter financial conditions weigh on the outlook for the region, elevated commodity prices will still support South American commodity-exporting countries but keep Central American and Caribbean oil-importing economies under strain. Amid persistent inflationary pressures, which have been exacerbated by the Russia-Ukraine war and supply disruptions,
The global economy was more resilient than expected in late 2022
Global economic activity was more resilient than expected in late 2022, and started 2023 on a slightly firmer footing. Europe appears to have avoided a recession in the winter of 2022/23, in large part owing to warmer than usual
The global downturn and tighter financial conditions weigh on the outlook for the region. That said, commodity prices will still provide support for South American commodity-exporting countries, while keeping Central American and Caribbean oil-importing economies under strain. Amid persistent inflationary pressures, worsened by the Russia-Ukraine war and supply disruptions, Latin
